Cyber Threats Foresight Against Iran Based on Attack VectorResearch Areas : General
masoud shafiee 2
siavash khorsandi 3
Keywords: Foresight, cyber threats, attack Vector, cross-impact analysis, senario,
Cyber threats have been extraordinary increased in recent years. Cyber attackers, including government agencies or hackers, have made significant advances in the use of various tools for attacking target systems in some countries particularly on Islamic republic of Iran. The complexity of cyber threats and the devastating effects of them on critical systems highlights necessity of cyber threats Foresight. This research can prepare the country for countering cyber threats based on existing and potential attack Vectors. First of all, 18 major cyber threats drivers base on attack Vectors through reviewing resources and interviewing with seven experts were identified. We use cross-impact analysis Future studies method to indicate main drivers of future cyber threats such as social engineering, Denial of service, ransomwares, spoofing and fraud and non-state actors. Mic Mac software will be used for this step. Finally, future scenarios for cyber threats were identified by using scenario-based approach. Scenario Wizard software will be used. The results of the research include two strong scenarios and 18 possible scenarios, based on the strongest scenario, ransomware, spoofing, fraud, social engineering and Denial of service are the most likely cyber threats by non-state actors through in a limited level
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