• List of Articles Risk

      • Open Access Article

        1 - Systematic analysis risk taking effects on innovations in science & technology Park of Pardis
        amin nedaei omidali kharazmi
        The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that influence risk and systematic review of the effectiveness of risk in promoting innovation and current assessment of risk in science and technology park. The population consisted of 105 experts from the park and Full Text
        The purpose of this study was to determine the factors that influence risk and systematic review of the effectiveness of risk in promoting innovation and current assessment of risk in science and technology park. The population consisted of 105 experts from the park and the 68 experts were selected through random sampling. The method analytical, first national-local system of innovation has been examined and described, then, participation and its formation procedure has been examined, through the next step, key causes effecting participation are extracted. After that, according to key causes affecting participation and their effects on city innovation, conceptual research model in a systematic way is presented. During the next phase, the conceptual model is evaluated by quantitive and qualitive study in the Pardis Science and Technology. The results show a variety of causes affect citizens participation, likewise these causes by reinforcing involvement. Influence innovation characteristics in cities and pave the way in providing dynamic atmosphere and creative to develop innovation in cities. Moreover, it was shown that their will not enhance the innovation significantly and barriers reinforcing participation in society shield be identified and revealed. Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        2 - IT Services Outsourcing Novation tactics and Entrepreneurial Strategies in the Financial Services (Case Study: Private and public banks in Markazi province)
        mahtab Eshghiaraghi
        With the rapid rise of global developments and  transition from the traditional society to the information society, paying attention to entrepreneurial strategies for the correct and optimal use of new opportunities and values has forced the banking system to be changed Full Text
        With the rapid rise of global developments and  transition from the traditional society to the information society, paying attention to entrepreneurial strategies for the correct and optimal use of new opportunities and values has forced the banking system to be changed more and more. Outsourcing of information technolog( IT) services has changed to a strategy option in using IT services for organizations due to relatively large advantages for organizations. The aim of this study is to explain the role of Outsourcing strategies of IT services in the financial Services of Private and public Banks inMarkazi province. This research is practical in terms of objective and the method is correlational.The statistical population consists of managers and experts of Private and public banks in Markaziprovince which over 103 is members of the community.Research data collected via questionnaire with Cronbach's alpha 0.889 were analyzed throughSpss software. Besides, multivariate regression and Pearson correlation test were applied to analyze them.The result ideates that all hypotheses are accepted. Also findings show that there is a direct relationship between management variables and expenses reduction, novation technologies and accessibility to more specialty (Mobile Banking, Internet and Electronics), IT security and risk reduction, increasing the business flexibility with novation Tactics and strategies of information technology IT services outsourcing in financial Services. So it is concludee that Private and public banks in Markazi province can improve financial services through raising access to more profession and using new technologies, decreasing the expenses, focusing on the main activities, decreasing risks and contracting for IT security and incresing commercial flexibility by IT outsourcingWith the rapid rise of global developments and  transition from the traditional society to the information society, paying attention to entrepreneurial strategies for the correct and optimal use of new opportunities and values has forced the banking system to be changed more and more. Outsourcing of information technolog( IT) services has changed to a strategy option in using IT services for organizations due to relatively large advantages for organizations. The aim of this study is to explain the role of Outsourcing strategies of IT services in the financial Services of Private and public Banks inMarkazi province. This research is practical in terms of objective and the method is correlational.The statistical population consists of managers and experts of Private and public banks in Markaziprovince which over 103 is members of the community.Research data collected via questionnaire with Cronbach's alpha 0.889 were analyzed throughSpss software. Besides, multivariate regression and Pearson correlation test were applied to analyze them.The result ideates that all hypotheses are accepted. Also findings show that there is a direct relationship between management variables and expenses reduction, novation technologies and accessibility to more specialty (Mobile Banking, Internet and Electronics), IT security and risk reduction, increasing the business flexibility with novation Tactics and strategies of information technology IT services outsourcing in financial Services. So it is concludee that Private and public banks in Markazi province can improve financial services through raising access to more profession and using new technologies, decreasing the expenses, focusing on the main activities, decreasing risks and contracting for IT security and incresing commercial flexibility by IT outsourcing. Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        3 - A Hybrid Neural Network Ensemble Model for Credit Risk Assessment
        shaban elahi ahmad ghodselahi hamidreza naji
        Banking is a specific industry that deals with capital and risk for making profit. Credit risk as the most important risk, is an active research domain in financial risk management studies. In this paper a hybrid model for credit risk assessment which applies ensemble l Full Text
        Banking is a specific industry that deals with capital and risk for making profit. Credit risk as the most important risk, is an active research domain in financial risk management studies. In this paper a hybrid model for credit risk assessment which applies ensemble learning for credit granting decisions is designed. Combining clustering and classification techniques resulted in system improvement. The German bank real dataset was used for neural network training. The proposed model implemented as credit risk evaluation multi agent system and the results showed the proposed model has higher accuracy, better performance and lesser cost in applicant classification when compared with other credit risk evaluation methods Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        4 - A review of the assessment and management of the ecological risk of invasive plants
        ساجده مدنی mokarram ravanbakhsh مریم پناهنده
        Due to the increase in human activities, the destructive impact on the environment is not limited to a particular region of the world. Including the destructive impacts are entering non-native plant species around the world that during the 200 years ago with the spread Full Text
        Due to the increase in human activities, the destructive impact on the environment is not limited to a particular region of the world. Including the destructive impacts are entering non-native plant species around the world that during the 200 years ago with the spread of agriculture, increase the exchange of goods, increased human activities as well as increasing environmental destruction, it's increasing. Although only a limited number of non-native species can be invasive, the negative effects of these species on natural and crop communities, human and animal health, and the changing ecosystem characteristics are so high that the research process is constantly expanding in this regard. One of the damages, which has received considerable attention in recent years, is the problem of the introduction of non-native (invasive) plant species into natural ecosystems, but not all non-native species are harmful. Sometimes non-native species are well absorbed by the ecosystem and positioned like native species. But invasive species are species that are not native ecosystems, and their entry causes economic, environmental or human health damage. In this study, the ecological risk assessment of aggressive plants will be provided and suitable strategies for controlling entry and risk reduction will be presented. Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        5 - Environmental risk assesssment of construction of caspian port in Anzali free zone by using Integration AHP& TOPSIS
        shamim moghadami niloofar Abedinzade Maryam  Haghighi khomami
        Environmental risk assessment is a further step of environmental impact assessment and analyze different aspects of risk, while understanding the Environmental impact zone, the environmental sensitivity of the area affected by special environmental values as well as ana Full Text
        Environmental risk assessment is a further step of environmental impact assessment and analyze different aspects of risk, while understanding the Environmental impact zone, the environmental sensitivity of the area affected by special environmental values as well as analysis and risk assessment district is considered. To accomplish this study first by using of field investigation the activities which leads to risk in construction of Caspian port water front were identified and in order to extract the significant risks the specialists questioner (Delphi) was used. Finally among the identified risks, 10 environmental risks were chosen for prioritizing.After identifying the risks, indicators such as probability, severity of risk and the sensibility of the environment were selected as prioritizing criteria. AHP method and ECPRO 2000 software, for determining the risk probability, for determination the severity of risk scores and the reference texts for determining the values of sensitivity were applied. After determining the indicators, the TOPSIS software was used to risk prioritizing. The results of prioritizing studied risk showed that the highest risk is related to increased turbidity, deformation of substrate and water pollution are with weights 0.938, 0.898 and 0.662 respectively. Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        6 - Development process on regional risk assessment
        ساجده مدنی mokarram ravanbakhsh مریم پناهنده
        EcoRA, which is aimed at appraising a wide range of undesirable impacts on ecosystems exposed to a possible eco-environmental hazard, has been highly recommended for environmental decision-making. In this paper reviews the development history of ecological risk assessme Full Text
        EcoRA, which is aimed at appraising a wide range of undesirable impacts on ecosystems exposed to a possible eco-environmental hazard, has been highly recommended for environmental decision-making. In this paper reviews the development history of ecological risk assessment (EcoRA) and presents a perspective for EcoRA and management. In addition, regional EcoRA needs to make further efforts, especially in theoretical study, uncertainty analysis, integrated use of GIS software and comprehensive risk assessment at regional scale in the future work. Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        7 - Risk factors for cattle lameness
        Ahmadreza Mohamadnia
        Lameness and its consequences are one the most important causes of economic losses in dairy farming. Lameness is a multifactorial condition that can be managed by knowing its risk factors and their importance in specific farms and conditions. Current article focusses on Full Text
        Lameness and its consequences are one the most important causes of economic losses in dairy farming. Lameness is a multifactorial condition that can be managed by knowing its risk factors and their importance in specific farms and conditions. Current article focusses on understanding value of causative agents and risk factors in a condition like lameness and evaluating risk factors in dairy farms. Risk factors were classified into farm building or environment factors (Top roof of the barns and its slop and height, flooring and its drainage, distance to milking parlour, milking parlour collecting area, alleys and foot bathes) Managerial factors (Nutrition and feeding, overstocking, herd composition, days in milk, cow movements in the herd, slurry cleaning and drainage, bedding) environment (Temperature, humidity, raining, wind, altitude, heat stress management) and cow factors (body condition scoring, milk production, concurrent diseases, time budgeting). Each factor was analysed in Iran’s dairy farming situation and applied methods of its management were discussed. Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        8 - Assessing the risk of erosion and sedimentation potential of watershed of Shahriar Dam in Mianeh Using GIS techniques and EPM Model
        mohammad hosein goudarzi
        Soil erosion and sedimentation are among the major limitations in applying water and soil resources. Thus, the assessment processes that govern their behavior in order to better understand watershed systems and explain proper management practices are essential. This stu Full Text
        Soil erosion and sedimentation are among the major limitations in applying water and soil resources. Thus, the assessment processes that govern their behavior in order to better understand watershed systems and explain proper management practices are essential. This study is therefore aimed at studying erosion in the watershed of Shahriar Dam in Mianeh, East Azerbaijan Province. In view of the recent conditions of formations, a sedimentation rate is very high in this dam. Evidently, these sediments fill the dam reservoir and lead to a reduction of the dam life time. As a result, studying erosion and estimating upstream erosion and sedimentation are necessary. Consequently, one of the principal goals of this survey is determining the level of sensitivity of formations to erosion and their roles in formation of new sediments. To achieve this aim, the border of Shahriar Dam’s watershed was determined by using 1:50000 topographic maps of Zanjan, Mianeh and Hashtrood. This region was carefully implemented on 1:250000 geological maps of Zanjan, Mianeh and Hashtrood. Maps of channels, geology, vegetative cover, faults, amount of rainfall, and regional topography were digitalized. Next, the erosion intensity was examined in the above-mentioned basin using GIS and marking and layer integration methods. On the other hand, in order to estimate the rate of erosion of present formations in the watershed basin, EPM method was used. It was revealed in this study that erosion-sensitive units were largely located in the northern and southern areas of the basin; however, there are erosion-prone rocks in the western part too. Based on the existing indices of GIS, total amount of sedimentation of the watershed basin of Shahriar Dam is medium. Moreover, according to EPM model, the coefficient of erosion and sediment yield (z) for this basin fall into very heavy erosion classes. for this reason, the sediment yield in the basin was high and put at somewhere close to 60,000 tons per hectare annually; and according to the zoning map of erosion, much of the sediment comes from segments of the zoning was done in this research area erosional is placed high. The final model represents the fact that lithology, land cover and stream erosion play a major role in controlling erosion and sediment yield. Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        9 - Analysis and comparison of students entrepreneurial intentions in Bu Ali Sina College of Agriculture and Payamnoor university of Hamedan
        Safiollah  Safaei Nasim Izadi Maryam  Musivand
        This study aimed to investigate the entrepreneurial intention among students of Bu-Ali Sina University in Hamedan and PNU surveys have been conducted within the overall framework. The sample consisted of 370 male and female students in agricultural disciplines in under Full Text
        This study aimed to investigate the entrepreneurial intention among students of Bu-Ali Sina University in Hamedan and PNU surveys have been conducted within the overall framework. The sample consisted of 370 male and female students in agricultural disciplines in undergraduate students formed the College of Agriculture. To collect information, a questionnaire and a simple random sampling was used to select the sample. Cronbach's alpha coefficient to determine the reliability coefficient was calculated to vary from 850 students' entrepreneurial intentions are good. To analyze the data, descriptive and inferential statistical methods were used. The results showed that in general students of entrepreneurship spirit and intent of the high entrepreneurial intentions are more male students. The results of the analysis showed a correlation between gender, employment situation, risk appetite and economic barriers in interest income and a significant positive correlation with their entrepreneurial intentions can be seen. As well as the entrepreneurial intentions Mnadray difference was observed between the universities. Manuscript Document
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        10 - A Criticism on class status in “ o’lrisch beck” ‘s flexible modernity
          reza mahmoudoghli  
        In this paper, the conception of class was criticized and studied in “o’lrisch beck”‘s view. The theoretical framework of research is based on the critical approach that aims to challenge the self-founded culture and intellect of modernity. O’lrisch beck as one of the f Full Text
        In this paper, the conception of class was criticized and studied in “o’lrisch beck”‘s view. The theoretical framework of research is based on the critical approach that aims to challenge the self-founded culture and intellect of modernity. O’lrisch beck as one of the flexible modernity theoreticians declares the death of class, the death of collective identities, and traditional construction in transition process to flexible modernity and emphasizes on individualism in modern age. In this paper, the authors criticize this framework due to ignorance of social inequalities in modern society and shows that beck’s theory about collective identities declination has very serious inconsistencies and contradictions. The main purpose of this essay is not, rejection of the reality of social changes, but the main goal is the clarification of existing internal mistakes and contradictions of Beck’s writings, along with the defense of class analysis in sociology discussions Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        11 - Overview of colic risk factors in horses
        Fattah  Iranmanesh Seyed Mahmoud  Shojaeian Amirsaeed  Samimi
        Gastrointestinal diseases are 50% of the problems and diseases that lead to death in adult horses. According to epidemiological studies, for every 100 horses per year, between 0.9 and 10 horses suffer from colic. The occurrence of colic varies between different farms an Full Text
        Gastrointestinal diseases are 50% of the problems and diseases that lead to death in adult horses. According to epidemiological studies, for every 100 horses per year, between 0.9 and 10 horses suffer from colic. The occurrence of colic varies between different farms and even at different times in one farm. The occurrence of colic seems to be strongly influenced by the level of quality of herd management and horse maintenance throughout the year. This means that variation in the rate of occurrence originates more from management than from the breed of horses. Various factors such as breed, age, sex, history, nutrition, activities, infectious and parasitic problems and dental problems can increase the risk of colic in horses. For example, Arabian horses have been identified as predisposed to colic, and other Heidegger breeds such as the Thoroughbred and Warmblad, and standard-range horses, are at high risk for colic. In addition, stallions, especially castrated stallions, are more susceptible to colic. Changes in the type of concentrate consumed, the type of other feeds, the quality of forage and pasture are closely related to colic and their causative agents. Intestinal parasites, especially tapeworms and streptococci, are important risk factors for colic that can increase the risk Manuscript Document
      • Open Access Article

        12 - An Effective Risk Computation Metric for Android Malware Detection
        Mahmood Deypir Ehsan Sharifi
        Android has been targeted by malware developers since it has emerged as widest used operating system for smartphones and mobile devices. Android security mainly relies on user decisions regarding to installing applications (apps) by approving their requested permissions Full Text
        Android has been targeted by malware developers since it has emerged as widest used operating system for smartphones and mobile devices. Android security mainly relies on user decisions regarding to installing applications (apps) by approving their requested permissions. Therefore, a systematic user assistance mechanism for making appropriate decisions can significantly improve the security of Android based devices by preventing malicious apps installation. However, the criticality of permissions and the security risk values of apps are not well determined for users in order to make correct decisions. In this study, a new metric is introduced for effective risk computation of untrusted apps based on their required permissions. The metric leverages both frequency of permission usage in malwares and rarity of them in normal apps. Based on the proposed metric, an algorithm is developed and implemented for identifying critical permissions and effective risk computation. The proposed solution can be directly used by the mobile owners to make better decisions or by Android markets to filter out suspicious apps for further examination. Empirical evaluations on real malicious and normal app samples show that the proposed metric has high malware detection rate and is superior to recently proposed risk score measurements. Moreover, it has good performance on unseen apps in term of security risk computation. Manuscript Document
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        13 - Evaluation of health risk due to inhalation of volatile organic components in the ambient air of Khorramabad.
        Arman Saei
        In this paper, carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessment is investigated by inhalation volatile organic components in the ambient air of Khorramabad. These compounds include benzene, ethylbenzene , toluene , xylenes (BTEX) and normal Hexane. To assess the risk Full Text
        In this paper, carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessment is investigated by inhalation volatile organic components in the ambient air of Khorramabad. These compounds include benzene, ethylbenzene , toluene , xylenes (BTEX) and normal Hexane. To assess the risk ,first two different scenarios were defined based on the exposure of people to the organic compounds in question and the duration of respiration. Then, the average amount of intake CDI or respiration of mentioned pollutants during life was extracted based on dual scenarios in 11 areas of Khorramabad city. The carcinogenic risk for benzene and ethylbenzene compounds as well as the non- carcinogenic risk for all pollutants discussed in both scenarios were calculated and discussed. It should be noted that due to the high amount of calculations and ease and accuracy in results, programming was done in excel software environment and the initial and final results were calculated directly from this method and the necessary diagrams were drawn. According to the calculation , the annual risk and the total risk of carcinogenicity of inhaling the pollutants in question in the air of Khorramabad for the first scenario are equal to 1.51 E -06 and 5.65 E-01 people per year , respectively. Also, the annual risk and the total risk for the second scenario are 6.19E-07 and 2.31 E-01 per year ,respectively. In addition , the non-carcinogenic risk index for inhalation of the these compounds in the ambient air of Khorramabad is 3.898 and 0.594 for the first and second scenarios respectively. Manuscript Document
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        14 - Jurisprudential and ethical analysis of business risk and comparing it to Garar with an emphasis on general rules of revenue generating risk
        Seyyed Mohammad Sadegh  Mousavi Ruhollah  Raisi
        "With technological development and increasing needs of societies, new economical transactions have been formed in societies in which risk has been embedded in the heart of these transactions. Risk in its literal meaning is “The danger resulting from uncertainty about a Full Text
        "With technological development and increasing needs of societies, new economical transactions have been formed in societies in which risk has been embedded in the heart of these transactions. Risk in its literal meaning is “The danger resulting from uncertainty about a possible occurrence of an incident in future”. Risk is a necessity for most of national and international commercial activities. In addition, in ethical perspective, humans’ development in individual, social, and economical, etc. aspects are guided by human’s behavior and decisions. It is obvious that realization of this aim is possible in certain and usual situations. However, in risky situations where a human is uncertain about or unaware of the consequences of his action, it seems difficult to make a decision that is in line with ethical norms. Hence, the present study in addition to analyzing business risk and comparing it to Gharar , aims at answering this fundamental question: what are the fundamentals of jurisprudential legitimacy and ethical narrative of revenue generating risk? The current study by using a descriptive-analytical method will show that: first, Gharar arises from ignorance or risks related to the pillars of contract and its outcome in transactions is the unfair increase in ones’ wealth to the detriment of the other one in the contract. However, risk in business is related to the future of invested capital and it has no relation with pillars of contract. Meanwhile, any profit or loss from business risk is a consequence of economic changes in supply and demand. Second, legitimacy of revenue risk as the superstructure can be inferred from the analysis of general jurisprudential rules on revenue generating risk with the centrality of the rule “Al-kharaj bial-ziman (profits against ‎liability)”. Third, in ethical perspective, a risk is considered legitimate if it is taken wisely and fairly and is based on individual and social interests. " Manuscript Document
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        15 - Examining the appropriate pattern of moral hazard in the non-financial terms of oil and gas contracts
        Davood  Baghaee Babak  Vosoughifard Homayoun  Habibi
        Today, oil has a lot in the economy of its producing countries. For numerous reasons, including the colonial relations between the producing countries and the colonial peoples on the one hand, and the lack of specialist forces and the necessary capital for oil productio Full Text
        Today, oil has a lot in the economy of its producing countries. For numerous reasons, including the colonial relations between the producing countries and the colonial peoples on the one hand, and the lack of specialist forces and the necessary capital for oil production in the Third World countries, with the participation of mainly capitalists from industrialized countries. For this reason, the legal nature of these relationships has been the subject of many discussions. On the one hand, the general and economic aspects and its moral hazard for the host country and the private aspects of capitalism have added to the difficulty of the discussion. The financial and non-financial conditions of such contracts have changed dramatically in different periods of history, creating many patterns. The political and economic changes in the world, in turn, have brought about changes and changes in the context of these relations and its moral hazard. A survey of the first form of these oil relations, signed under the title "Concession Concession" of capital investors with oil-rich governments, has revealed that today's conventional contracts can outline the different aspects of morality in these contracts. In this paper, the study of the appropriate model of moral hazard in the non-financial conditions of oil and gas contracts in Iran is carried out in a descriptive-analytical manner.. Manuscript Document
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        16 - The Role of Auditors' Social and Professional Responsibility Insurance on Audit Risk and Audit Quality Using the Delphi Approach and Structural Equations
          Ali  Khozain    
        This research investigates the role of auditors' social and professional liability insurance on the risk of reputation and quality of audit using the Delphi approach. One way to eliminate risk is to transfer risk, and since auditors may face some risks for various reaso Full Text
        This research investigates the role of auditors' social and professional liability insurance on the risk of reputation and quality of audit using the Delphi approach. One way to eliminate risk is to transfer risk, and since auditors may face some risks for various reasons, such as failures, professional liability insurance is at stake for them. This study was conducted using a Delphi approach based on 95 questionnaires completed by the auditors in 2018. Using by Structural Equations the results of the first hypothesis showed that independent auditors consider social and professional liability insurance to reduce the risk of their reputation and there is a negative and significant relationship between social insurance and professional liability insurance and the risk of auditors' reputation. The association with the second hypothesis of the results showed that social and professional liability insurance would reduce audit quality Manuscript Document
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        17 - Assessment of Potential Risks Towards the Business Processes Reengineering Success in SMEs
        Mohsen Shafiei Nik Abadi Haniyeh Farahmand Atiyeh Derakhshan Fatemeh Rezaei
        In turbulent business environment, organizations are struggling to make themselves agility and for this purpose, it is necessary for them to reengineer the business process. Selecting an appropriate process for reengineering can improve organization in low cost and high Full Text
        In turbulent business environment, organizations are struggling to make themselves agility and for this purpose, it is necessary for them to reengineer the business process. Selecting an appropriate process for reengineering can improve organization in low cost and high speed. This means that organization should select reengineering processes with the greatest potential for change and also generate the best result for the organizations agility. Due to the high failure rate in business processes reengineering, risk assessment is important for these processes. This paper aims to assess the potential risk in the success of business processes reengineering. This study is an applied research in terms of results and in terms of variables; it includes qualitative variables and takes place in the field of descriptive researches and performs via survey method. Cronbach's alpha method is used for the reliability and content for validity. To verify the hypothesis of research, correlation and regression methods are used. A case study performed small and medium enterprises of an Incubator in Ferdowsi University. The innovative aspect of research is to create a new perspective to examine the effect of risk and failure rates in business processes reengineering. According to the results of this research, among the potential risk dimensions, management support and workplace have the greatest impact on success rate of business processes reengineering. Manuscript Document
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        18 - Identifying and Assessing Relationships between Variables Affecting Innovation in Petrochemical Companies Using DEMATEL Fuzzy Technique
        Rahim Ghasemiye Mehdi Hashemi
        The increasingly rate of change and as a result shortening product life cycle, has emphasis on innovation among industrial companies. The purpose of this research is to briefly discuss the role that innovation plays in global competition and to investigate the relations Full Text
        The increasingly rate of change and as a result shortening product life cycle, has emphasis on innovation among industrial companies. The purpose of this research is to briefly discuss the role that innovation plays in global competition and to investigate the relationship among influential variables on innovation in petrochemical companies. Drawing from literature review we developed a research model. It consists of 26 factors and then with utilizing DEMATEL Fuzzy technique, they were reduced to seven variables, namely, culture of change, management performance, focusing on clients’ demand, financial conditions, product flexibility, using new technology and government support. Then the effects of above factors on organizational innovation have been assessed. Results emphasizes on vital role of culture of change among employees that must be at center of interest on managers. Also results indicate that clients’ interest is an independent variable that neither effects nor effected by other variables. Among other findings, results indicate that culture of change, management performance and using modern technologies are the most vital factors affecting innovation in petrochemical companies. Investment variable has been identified as an independent variable that has great effect on a number of effective variables in petrochemical companies. Manuscript Document
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        19 - Technological Collaboration :Key Concepts and Success Factors
        Reza Ansari
        In today's world, especially after the development of open innovation paradigm, technological collaboration is the most important sources of innovation. Because, in the new competitive environment, organizations are in need sources of innovation and the current competi Full Text
        In today's world, especially after the development of open innovation paradigm, technological collaboration is the most important sources of innovation. Because, in the new competitive environment, organizations are in need sources of innovation and the current competitive advantages and internal resources are not sufficient for competitiveness. So technological collaboration is an effective tool for developing competitive advantage and eliminate the gap between current and desired capabilities. This makes the technological collaboration as an engine of growth and productivity in local and international markets and also as one of the most important management tools for improving the competitiveness of organizations and strategic maneuvers in complex and dynamic environments. In recent years, collaboration has been expanded so that five hundred first-class international business, has more than sixty percent of strategic alliances. These collaborations are not necessarily always successful and failure rate has been reported seventy to eighty percent. These failures led to the scientific experts efforts for finding solutions of increase the effectiveness of collaborations, Appropriate methods of collaboration, Reduce the risks of collaboration and identifying Success Factors. In this paper is attempted after literature review, success Factors of technological collaboration is introduced. Understanding these factors provide useful insight for managers and policy makers. Manuscript Document
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        20 - Risk and Return Evaluation of Information Technology Projects by Real Option and Mean-Variance Theory Perspective
        Hosein Rezaei Dolat abadi Samaneh Amir Boshli
        The selection of appropriate technology projects has been one of the most significant business challenges of the last decade. Nevertheless, Information technology projects represent the largest capital expenditure items for most firms, but many projects have been unsucc Full Text
        The selection of appropriate technology projects has been one of the most significant business challenges of the last decade. Nevertheless, Information technology projects represent the largest capital expenditure items for most firms, but many projects have been unsuccessful. Because of the importance of such investments, there is a need for a scientific framework to analyze them. This paper analyses and uses Real Options and Mean-Variance theory for risk and return analysis, and ranking the information technology investment projects. These two models offer a simple, but comprehensive method for managers to evaluate potential information technology projects. Manuscript Document
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        21 - : Keys to a Successful Business Plan
        Nazanin Zeyd
        Aprospective business owner as well as those already in business needs to develop a written plan. Written plans provide a management tool for determining specific strengths and weakness of an idea, documenting reasonable objectives and identifying resources to attain th Full Text
        Aprospective business owner as well as those already in business needs to develop a written plan. Written plans provide a management tool for determining specific strengths and weakness of an idea, documenting reasonable objectives and identifying resources to attain them. A written plan will also provide the basis for developing a more detailed business operating plan. Even though the risk of going into business cannot be eliminated, a good plan will help reduce the risk Manuscript Document
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        22 - The relationship between virtual companies and Information Technology with risk management and their interactive impact on each other
        Iman Mohammadian Khorasani Reza Saniei
        In the present world of business, Information Technology, as a modern technology, plays an essential role. On one hand , because of this essential role and the existence of large resources, the user organizations of this technology are faced with high level of risk, and Full Text
        In the present world of business, Information Technology, as a modern technology, plays an essential role. On one hand , because of this essential role and the existence of large resources, the user organizations of this technology are faced with high level of risk, and on the other hand the rapid changes of technology and business environment; these factors, together, clarify the necessity of using effective and comprehensive risk management in the field of Information Technology. By conducting a general study over the identity of Information Technology and its related risks, in this article its been tried to provide and introduce a suitable framework for risk management in addition with IT use as a useful tool in the field of risk management. Manuscript Document
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        23 - To Provide Risk Analysis Approach of Knowledge-based Firm Project by means of ANP-RFMEA Technique
        Meysam Jafari Eskandari Leyla Alibeygi
        A firm which pays close attention to provide a new product and market attendance and innovation commercialization is introduced as a knowledge based firm. In such firms, since invest emphasizes on innovation and commercialization, so lack of attention to economy and mar Full Text
        A firm which pays close attention to provide a new product and market attendance and innovation commercialization is introduced as a knowledge based firm. In such firms, since invest emphasizes on innovation and commercialization, so lack of attention to economy and market risks may lead to a considerable damage to the firm. To do preventive measures toward reducing the risk effects and damages incurred by these firms, it is necessary to apply a powerful and significant method in identifying and real ranking of risks. To identify and prioritize the risk is considered as the most effective stages in risk management procedure. For this, in this research to analyze the risk of project in knowledge-based firms, a combination of RFMEA, ANP has been used, in which EMEA parameters are related in the form of a grid led to benefits and capabilities aggregation in the ANP-RFMEA method compared to FMEA. At first, the literature overview and studies in the literature domain, projects risks of knowledge based firms identified and provided the related experts by means of a verified questionnaire. Finally, its result is ranked and analyzed by the integrated approach of ANP-FMEA. Meanwhile, for the research and in order to reach a reliable result, all the ANP method stages is applied by means of SUPER DECISION software. At least, capabilities of the above mentioned compared to FMEA method is shown in risk ranking. Manuscript Document
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        24 - Identifying Risks of Oil Industry Projects Based on PMBOK’s Standard, and Ranking Them by Using FAHP & Fuzzy TOPSIS Case study: Tehran Jonoob Technical and Construction Company, in the Site of Persian Gulf Star Oil Company
        ebrahim jamali mahnaz barkhordai ahmadi
        According that the risks in the project could have a significant effect on the short-term performance and long-term negative impact on financial performance, therefore, risk management is necessary to reduce failures due to various risks such as uncertain economic cycle Full Text
        According that the risks in the project could have a significant effect on the short-term performance and long-term negative impact on financial performance, therefore, risk management is necessary to reduce failures due to various risks such as uncertain economic cycles, uncertain customer demand and unpredictable natural disasters and humanitarian. Previous studies have shown that having a comprehensive list of risks in oil and gas projects and also prioritizing and determine risks significance is important. In this study we identified TJ (Tehran Jonoob Co.) risks using PMBOK’s methods of risk identification and categorizing, Then specified the weight of the criteria’s (cost, time, quality, scope) using fuzzy hierarchical analysis (Fuzzy AHP) and Finally we discussed on prioritizing risks totally and in groups using TOPSIS method. Manuscript Document
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        25 - Identify the Technological Risks of the New Product Development Process and Prioritize by the Analytical Network Process (ANP)
        Abolfazl mirzaramazani Sayed Mahdi Golestan Hashemi Seyed Mohammad Massoud naserian
        Nowadays, Organizational survival depends on the tendency toward new products and the use of new ways to create them. Developing new product is a process through which a new product or a service is offered to the customers. More precisely, the new product development pr Full Text
        Nowadays, Organizational survival depends on the tendency toward new products and the use of new ways to create them. Developing new product is a process through which a new product or a service is offered to the customers. More precisely, the new product development process involves using resources and capabilities to create a new product or improve an existing product. Given the shorter life cycle of products and technology developments, new product development process in the growth, survival, and competitiveness of the utmost importance. There are several risks during new product development process; that in general, are divided into three major categories: technological risks, organizational risks, and marketing risks. According to studies, the technological risks are one of the most important risks. Perceived technological risk refers to a firm’s inability to completely understand or accurately predict some aspects of the technological environment as it relates to NPD projects. Hence identifying and reducing these risks helps to increase the success rate of the new product development process. In this research, by reviewing the literature on the areas of the new product development process, risk and risk management, 20 types of common technological risks in new product development process are extracted from the literature and using a number of experts from Malek Ashtar University of Isfahan who are specialized in this field, they are prioritized by the Analytical Network Process (ANP). Manuscript Document
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        26 - The Role of Organizational Capabilities in Reducing Technological Risks and Improving the Market Performance of Knowledge Companies by Mediating role of Technology Intelligence
        Mohammad hataminejad Mohsen Akbari Mostafa Ebrahim pour Azbary
        Nowadays knowledge-based companies are regarded as an important tool in economic development, and since in the current market, dynamic technological envirorments compel companies to seek smart and responsive solutions to this turbulent environment. The rapid rate of tec Full Text
        Nowadays knowledge-based companies are regarded as an important tool in economic development, and since in the current market, dynamic technological envirorments compel companies to seek smart and responsive solutions to this turbulent environment. The rapid rate of technological change puts knowledge-based companies at risk; therefore, in order to be efficient and effective in the field of technology, they must acquire the capabilities necessary for business product changes, materials, processes, and technologies. Organizational capabilities and technology intelligence are some of the tools that help companies adapt to technological environment. The purpose of this study is descriptive and the method of data gathering is, library and qualitative type based on content analysis. From the descriptive-analytical approach to content description and evaluation, 63 articles were selected that are closely related to the research topic and finally. According to the minimum number needed to generalize the results, according to experts and academic staff, 30 of the most relevant articles were analyzed as target community articles. In this study, qualitative content analysis method with summary approach was used. Organizing qualitative data in the analysis of this research has been done in three stages of initial coding, open coding and selective coding. the present study examines the role of organizational capabilities in reducing technological risk and knowledge based on knowledge and knowledge of knowledge - based businesses, examines the role of organizational capabilities in reducing technological risks and improving the market performance of knowledge firms by mediating the more efficient and developing competition and improving the new products and services. Manuscript Document
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        27 - A Method for Identifying and Ranking the Risks of the New Product Development Process in the Iranian Automotive Industry Using the Method Combined ANP-DEMATEL
        seyed ghasem salimi zavieh roksana fekri
        The rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking in global markets and the ever-increasing changes in customer needs have put pressure on new product development teams.There are many risks in the process of developing new products in all industries intrinsically. T Full Text
        The rapid growth of technology, increased risk-taking in global markets and the ever-increasing changes in customer needs have put pressure on new product development teams.There are many risks in the process of developing new products in all industries intrinsically. Therefore, understanding, identifying and ranking the risks is of strategic importance for companies. The purpose of this study is identifying and ranking the risks in the process of developing a new product in Iran's automotive industry, based on the literature of research and specialized interviews conducted with experts, the main indicators have been identified. The main risk indicators in the new product development process are organizational, managerial, financial, manufacturing, marketing, and technical. Moreover, they are related to the phases of new product development. Therefore, these indicators will be ranked in this study. Regarding the relationship between the criteria and the sub-criteria, the DEMETL technique will be used to identify the relationship model, and based on the network of identified relationships, the network analysis process (ANP) technique has been used for ranking the criteria and Sub-criteria with Super Decision software. The result of these techniques suggests that organizational risk is the most important parameter in risk management of the new product development process and the technical risk is the least important. On the other hand, sub-criterion of incorrect planning of resources has the highest importance and sub-criterion of lack of sufficient communications is the least important in the automotive industry in Iran. Manuscript Document
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        28 - The Relationship between Risk Perception and Cognitive Emotion Regulation with Tendency to Addiction Mediated by Decision-Making Styles
        Hossein Zare Sosan Kangavari Mahnaz Aliakbaridehkordi
        The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between risk perception and cognitive emotion regulation with tendency to addiction by mediating decision-making styles. This research was a descriptive and a correlational study. To this end, 320 students from t Full Text
        The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between risk perception and cognitive emotion regulation with tendency to addiction by mediating decision-making styles. This research was a descriptive and a correlational study. To this end, 320 students from the Department of Banking and Payam of Noor University of Bijar city were selected by random sampling method. Data were collected using Risk Perception Index, Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire, Zargars Addiction Tendency Questionnaire and Scott and Bruce's Decision-Making Styles. Questionnaire. In order to evaluate the proposed model, Amos software and path analyze method were used. The findings showed that there was a negative significant relationship between risk perception and positive cognitive emotion regulation directly with the tendency to addiction and negative cognitive emotion regulation have a positive significant relationship with the tendency to addiction. Also, decision-making style indirectly influenced the predictive value of the variables. Overall, the results showed that decision-making style had a significant mediating role in the relationship between risk perception and cognitive emotion regulation with tendency to addiction. Manuscript Document
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        29 - The Role of Alexithymia to Predict High-Risk Behaviors based on Mediating Role of Perceived Social Support
        marzieh farzadnia
        The present research that is a cross-sectional and correlational study, aimed to investigate the mediating role of perceived social support in relation between Alexithymia and tendency to high-risk behaviors in master degree girl students of one of the universities in Full Text
        The present research that is a cross-sectional and correlational study, aimed to investigate the mediating role of perceived social support in relation between Alexithymia and tendency to high-risk behaviors in master degree girl students of one of the universities in Qom who were studied in the second semester of 2017-2016, was implemented. 470 students were selected by stratified and cluster random sampling, and completed Toronto Alexithymia Scale -20 (TAS-20), Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS) and scale of Iranian Adolescents Risk-taking Scale (IARS). Analysis of data was done by using Pearson correlation coefficient and path analysis and software Spss 22 and Lisrel 8/72. According to the results of this research, perceived social support had meaningful negative correlation with tendency to high-risk behaviors (r= -0/238). On the contrary, Alexithymia had meaningful positive correlation with tendency to high-risk behaviors (r= 0/294). Path analysis showed that perceived social support had a meaningful mediating role in the relationship between alexithymia and its tendency to high-risk behaviors. Regarding the role of Alexithymia and perceived social support variables in tendency to high-risk behaviors, the findings of this research can be used to identify individuals who expose at risk and by improving Alexithymia and strengthening perceived social support in this people, prevent tendency to high-risk behavior. Also, according to the obtained results regard to mediating role of perceived social support in relation between Alexithymia and high-risk behaviors, with strengthening perceived social support in individual with Alexithymia can reduce tendency to high-risk behaviors in this individual. Manuscript Document
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        30 - Developing the Risk Management Model in Procurement Process of Project based Organization
        اميرحسين  اصلاني سید علیرضا  میر محمد صادقی
        The procurement plays a critical role in achieving the goals of project-based organizations, as it is one of the project management fields which include risk and uncertainty. In this article, different models which are existed in the field of procurement risk management Full Text
        The procurement plays a critical role in achieving the goals of project-based organizations, as it is one of the project management fields which include risk and uncertainty. In this article, different models which are existed in the field of procurement risk management gathered and analyzed. Then the models are examined based on the questionnaire and according to the concluded index. Through integrating some models which have higher scores in assessing the criteria and through adding other factors, a model for implementing risk management in the procurement process of project-based organizations is suggested. The researcher uses the group decision making for considered goods and this factor is the strength points of the suggested model. In this model besides developing and optimizing organization procurement process, risk management affairs in planning for procurement are considered. In order to examine the operation of the developed model, it is implemented in the considered organization and the results of this implementation shows that the level of risk management operation in procurement process improved. Manuscript Document
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        31 - Developing the Risk Management Model in Procurement Process of Project based Organization
        اميرحسين  اصلاني احمد  نورنگ سید علیرضا  میر محمد صادقی حسام الدین  اصلانی
        The procurement plays a critical role in achieving the goals of project-based organizations, as it is one of the project management fields which include risk and uncertainty. In this article, different models which are existed in the field of procurement risk management Full Text
        The procurement plays a critical role in achieving the goals of project-based organizations, as it is one of the project management fields which include risk and uncertainty. In this article, different models which are existed in the field of procurement risk management gathered and analyzed. Then the models are examined based on the questionnaire and according to the concluded index. Through integrating some models which have higher scores in assessing the criteria and through adding other factors, a model for implementing risk management in the procurement process of project-based organizations is suggested. The researcher uses the group decision making for considered goods and this factor is the strength points of the suggested model. In this model besides developing and optimizing organization procurement process, risk management affairs in planning for procurement are considered. In order to examine the operation of the developed model, it is implemented in the considered organization and the results of this implementation shows that the level of risk management operation in procurement process improved. Manuscript Document
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        32 - Evaluation of entrepreneurship specifications: The case of Saman Bank employees
        پيمان  اخوان محمدرضا  زاهدی تکتم  ژیان
        Considering the importance of maintaining process in global markets and the today's world competitive field, innovation, creativity and entrepreneurship organizations generally and in financial organizations such as Banks specially, can have a significant role in receiv Full Text
        Considering the importance of maintaining process in global markets and the today's world competitive field, innovation, creativity and entrepreneurship organizations generally and in financial organizations such as Banks specially, can have a significant role in receiving to the economic goals, therefore it seems necessary that each organization tries to examine and recognize the entrepreneurship qualifications of its employees, so by training this labor and persisting proper approach, can reach to the entrepreneurship process. Therefore, this study gets to through evaluating entrepreneurship qualifications of bank employees in dependency, and creativity will and determination, risk taking, success) in respect of the rate of having these qualification. Other objects of this study is determining the effects of employees sex marital state ,record of work and place of work on their entrepreneurship ,statistical population includes 110 employees of SAMAN bank and sample size of the research is 85 person who were chosen by casually sampling. For collecting data entrepreneurship comprehensive test questioning has been used which includes 54 questions about entrepreneurship qualifications stability and validity.co-efficient of the above said questioner is 71 percent. Statistics analysis has been done using SPSS software. In this research, we explored the level of the personnel entrepreneurship qualifications of SAMAN bank employees, so that this can be an introduction for the organization to progress through the entrepreneurship activities. The result of this research shows that although SAMAN bank s employees don’t have the necessary minimum for being entrepreneurship, but 22 percent of them are qualified for entrepreneurship. Also SAMAN bank employees, don’t have the average of dependency, creativity, and risk taking. The number of female employees in respect of having the dependency qualifications is more than male employees and, men who have risking (risk taking) and success qualifications are more than woman. In the case of creativity the number of both groups is the same. Furthermore, the results show that the employees' sex, marital status and place of services have no influence on entrepreneurship between records of work of the employees and their entrepreneurship. Manuscript Document
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        33 - A New Approach Based on Failure Mode and Effects Analysis and Kepland to Extract and Prioritize the Effective risks on Project Completion Time
        mojtaba salehi
        Abstract Projects are planned based on estimated amounts that are the result of having little information about the future plans. According to the uncertainty of planning, time delays and costs of uncertainty are inevitable. The main objective of this study is to prese Full Text
        Abstract Projects are planned based on estimated amounts that are the result of having little information about the future plans. According to the uncertainty of planning, time delays and costs of uncertainty are inevitable. The main objective of this study is to present a new approach based on failure mode and effects analysis and fuzzy logic to identify the affecting risks on duration of projects and ranking them using Kepland technique. In addition, in this research Shannon entropy is used for calculation of the weights of indexes. So after the study of related researches as well as through interviews and Delphi technique, some risks were identified. Then, based on three indicators of risk in the FMEA (severity, probability of occurrence, probability of detection), three questionnaire was prepared and their validity was confirmed by experts and reliability was calculated by Cronbach coefficient using SPSS software. The population of the study is 22 managers and experts that work on Debal Khazaei Company. Using triangular fuzzy numbers, the verbal variables of questionnaires became fuzzy numbers. Shannon entropy is used for calculation of weight of each index. Then, using decision making methods, ELECTRE TAXONOMY, TOPSIS and SAW, the risks are ranked. Finally, because of the relative difference of ranking in different techniques, Kapland technique is used to combine the results. TO help for developing the strategies of responding to the risks, some suggestions are presented. The contribution of this research is the simultaneous use of FMEA and Shannon's entropy to analisys the importance of risks and the ranking of them using Kepland technique. Manuscript Document
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        34 - An Applicable Model for Diagnosing and Ranking the Key Success Factors of Project Risk Management (Case study: Research Institute of Petroleum Industry)
        Mohammad Ali Hatefi
        The purpose of project risk management is to improve project performance by systematically identifying and assessing risks, developing strategies to reduce threats and to maximize opportunities. According to our review, some key success factors have previously been iden Full Text
        The purpose of project risk management is to improve project performance by systematically identifying and assessing risks, developing strategies to reduce threats and to maximize opportunities. According to our review, some key success factors have previously been identified in project risk management literature, but their importance relative to each other has yet been uncovered. This paper introduces an applicable model to diagnose and to rank the project risk management key success factors of an assumed project, using group decision-making. Surely, having the obtained rank may lead the project manager view toward focusing on critical points of project risk management. The proposed model could be used by the analysts of the other management fields. The paper ends with explaining a case study. Manuscript Document
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        35 - The effect of risk and resources on Firm's growth strategies in high tech industries
        mohsen Parsajam   Bahman Hajipour Esmaeil Fadaei Nejad
        During the last decade there was a well known strategy to support startups and enterprenuers to stabilish firms in high tech industries. despite the position of high-tech industries has been weakened especially in export share. Growth strategies utilized by high-tech fi Full Text
        During the last decade there was a well known strategy to support startups and enterprenuers to stabilish firms in high tech industries. despite the position of high-tech industries has been weakened especially in export share. Growth strategies utilized by high-tech firms can improve the position. Growth strategies help firms to increase their market share and sale revenues. Hence, current study aims to designate and validate growth strategies of high-tech firms. Research model has been proposed based on the extended literature, the situation of high-tech industry, and experts' views. Data is gathered by a self-administrated questionnaire and would be analyzed by structural equation modeling using SPSS 18 and LISERL 8.54. Population is managers of high-tech firms in Iran. A convenience sampling approach is employed to collect estimated sample. Data achieved from 451 respondents was analyzed. Results indicated that: 1) growth strategies of high tech firms affect their outputs, 2) resources affect growth strategies of high-tech firms, 3) multiple risks affect the utilization of resources by the high tech firms, and 4) high tech firms provide the needed resources for their growth based on the outcomes in terms of profit and/or attractiveness Manuscript Document
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        36 - Analyzing influential factors on non-oil export development in terms of risk in Iran’s Custom Administration
        Maryam  Tanabandeh Sanjar Salajegheh
        Trade affairs, particularly export, have been always encountered with risks and uncertainties. It is obvious that coping with these risk categories requires a systematic process for identifying, analyzing and responding to the risks in order to maximize the results of p Full Text
        Trade affairs, particularly export, have been always encountered with risks and uncertainties. It is obvious that coping with these risk categories requires a systematic process for identifying, analyzing and responding to the risks in order to maximize the results of positive events and minimizing the consequences of bad and negative events that can affect the main goals of export. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to design and determine the optimal risk management model and its executive requirements in the Islamic Republic of Iran's Custom Administration (IRICA) with the export development approach. The statistical population of the research in the qualitative section was the managers and experts of the IRICA in Tehran and in the quantitative section, was all experts of customs with a definitive export procedure. The sample needed for qualitative interviews was collected to the extent of theoretical saturation through a targeted judgment sampling. The qualitative data was analyzed by the grounded theory. Out of 181 subcategories extracted from verbal propositions, 41 core categories were extracted which formed the paradigm model of export risk management. Results indicated that product-based risk, trade risk, export decleration risk, non-performance risk, credit risk, transportation risk, individual based risk, and legal risk are the main export risks in Iran and related strategies were suggested. In addition, contextual factors including cultural, legal, environmental, economic, and political facors as well as mediator factors including quality of export operation mechanisms, human resource quality and stakeholder participation have affectd the risk management strategies. Manuscript Document
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        37 - Investigation of the relationship between the managers narcissism with monitoring costs
        ameneh bazrafshan ashraf rezaei nasab
        The present study investigates the relationship between board of directors, CEO and financial non-executive member of the board narcissism with performance monitoring costs. Theoretically, firms with narcissistic manager have a higher risk of inherent risk and control r Full Text
        The present study investigates the relationship between board of directors, CEO and financial non-executive member of the board narcissism with performance monitoring costs. Theoretically, firms with narcissistic manager have a higher risk of inherent risk and control risk Compared to other firms. Therefore, auditors must do additional work to maintain an acceptable level of audit risk when faced with such managers, and ultimately will demand more fees. To measure narcissism is used of the area of managers’ signatures. In this regard, 101 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange have been investigated in the period of 8 years during the years 2009-2017. The present research is an applied research in terms of purpose, and in terms of research method, descriptive-correlation is considered. The results of the research show that there is significant relationship between board of directors' narcissism (based on signature size) and audit fees. However, no significant relationship was found between the CEO and the financial non-executive member of the board narcissism with audit fees. Manuscript Document
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        38 - Assessing the effect of macroeconomic shocks on systemic risk of the banking system using the SVAR model in Iran
        ali ostadhashemi seyed jalal sharif ali Souri
        In this study, we have used the total capital market index (TEDPIX) as an index of the real sector of the economy and the index of banks and credit financial institutions as an index that explains the developments of the banking system. Also, oil revenues, exchange rate Full Text
        In this study, we have used the total capital market index (TEDPIX) as an index of the real sector of the economy and the index of banks and credit financial institutions as an index that explains the developments of the banking system. Also, oil revenues, exchange rate uncertainty, tax revenues, liquidity, nominal interest rates, inflation uncertainty and GDP have been used as macroeconomic variables in the research period (1370-1396). To estimate the systemic risk of the banking system, the quarterly data of the banks' index is used and the value at risk of the return of the seasonal data of the index is estimated using an exponential GARCH model. In order to model the interaction of macroeconomic variables and systemic risk of the banking system, an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model was estimated and then using instantaneous impact functions and based on Chulsky analysis, systemic risk response to other variables was investigated and analyzed. In order to identify the channels of impact of economic shocks on the systemic risk of the banking system, based on the structures of the Iranian economy, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model was specified and then the instantaneous impact functions were extracted and the effect of macro variable shocks on the systemic risk of the banking system was investigated. Also, the effect of systemic risk of the banking system on macroeconomic variables was investigated and analyzed using instantaneous impact functions. Finally, the interaction model of macroeconomic variables and systemic risk of the banking system was approved using the vector autoregressive model. Manuscript Document
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        39 - Distributed Generation Sources Placement in Electric Power Distribution Networks under Uncertainty
        H. Falaghi   M. Parsa-Moghaddam
        This paper presents a new multiobjective model for optimal placement of distributed generation sources in electric distribution network under load and market price uncertainties that finds out the non-dominated multiobjective solutions corresponding to the simultaneous Full Text
        This paper presents a new multiobjective model for optimal placement of distributed generation sources in electric distribution network under load and market price uncertainties that finds out the non-dominated multiobjective solutions corresponding to the simultaneous minimization of economic cost, technical risks, and economical risk due to uncertainties. Fuzzy sets theory is used to model the uncertainties. The proposed model is solved using a specialized genetic algorithm as the optimization tool. The performance of the proposed approach is assessed and appreciated by case study on a typical distribution network. Manuscript Document
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        40 - Probabilistic Evaluation of Total Transfer Capability of Transmission Networks in the Presence of Wind Farms
        M. Ramezani   H. Seifi M. Parsa-Moghaddam
        , wind farms are used to generate electric power in some parts of the world. With increasing penetration level of wind farms in electric power systems, modification of current tools to evaluate and manage the system is an important issue. Evaluation of total transfer ca Full Text
        , wind farms are used to generate electric power in some parts of the world. With increasing penetration level of wind farms in electric power systems, modification of current tools to evaluate and manage the system is an important issue. Evaluation of total transfer capability (TTC) is one of the considerable tools in restructured power systems which is used to schedule future transactions between areas in multi area power systems to ensure security of network. In this paper, a method is proposed for probabilistic evaluation of TTC of multi area power systems in the presence of wind farms. Firstly, a general approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate a system state considering system load and power output of wind farm and optimal power flow (OPF) is used to calculate TTC level for each state. Then risk analysis is used as a decision making tool to determine the appropriate TTC level for a fixed system load level. Finally, both of system load and power output of wind farm are considered and clustered input data are used to accelerate Monte Carlo convergence speed. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches IEEE-RTS is used. Manuscript Document
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        41 - Risk-based Static and Dynamics Security Assessment and Its Enhancement with Particle Swarm Optimization Generation Realloca
        M.  Saeedi H. Seifi
        Security assessment is traditionally checked using a deterministic criterion. Based on that, the system may be considered as secured or unsecured. If an unsecured condition is detected, preventive actions are foreseen to make it secure. Recently, risk based security as Full Text
        Security assessment is traditionally checked using a deterministic criterion. Based on that, the system may be considered as secured or unsecured. If an unsecured condition is detected, preventive actions are foreseen to make it secure. Recently, risk based security assessment is used in power systems. In this paper, risk-based static and dynamic security assessment is proposed and a new transient stability index is defined. In this paper, the risk index is used as an objective function in the generation reallocation algorithm. In this algorithm, the security is maintained using the generation reallocation. The algorithm is tested on IEEE 24-bus test system and its capabilities are assessed in comparison with a traditional OPF, in which the security is maintained based on a deterministic criterion. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used as the optimization tool. Manuscript Document
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        42 - Estimating the score of assessment centers based on the concept of risk and interpersonal differences
        امیر  آذرفر MohamadMahdi Alishiri Hossein Safari ali ebadi
        One of the methods are used to assess and evaluate employees is the evaluation center. Evaluation centers usually have good validity at the tool level, but there are weaknesses at the model level of estimating the final score of evaluation centers. This research is desi Full Text
        One of the methods are used to assess and evaluate employees is the evaluation center. Evaluation centers usually have good validity at the tool level, but there are weaknesses at the model level of estimating the final score of evaluation centers. This research is designed to provide a method to estimate the final score of assessment centers based on the concept of risk and taking into account interpersonal differences. For this purpose, the data of the evaluation center of 800 managers of the country has been used. In this research, nine different models have been designed and evaluated, and finally, the model with the lowest error rate is presented as the selected model. Manuscript Document
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        43 - Identifying Systematic Risk Factors in Companies Active in Iranian Medical Tourism Industry[1]
        Saeid Amirian Ali Mohammad Ahmadi Abbas Assari Arani Ezatollah Abbasian
        Today, medical tourism is considered a valuable industry for many countries' economies that have the potentials to receive patients. However, demand fluctuations have devastating effects on the medical tourism industry and put active companies at risk of bankruptcy. Sys Full Text
        Today, medical tourism is considered a valuable industry for many countries' economies that have the potentials to receive patients. However, demand fluctuations have devastating effects on the medical tourism industry and put active companies at risk of bankruptcy. Systematic risks are among the factors involved in demand fluctuations, and companies' readiness to resist them is regarded as an important point in risk management. In cases where the companies are not ready in this regard, potential financial problems and widespread bankruptcy could bring about severe social consequences. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to measure systematic risks in companies actively involved in attracting medical tourists and to estimate the factors affecting such risks. To this end, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) was used. In this method, the beta coefficient ( Manuscript Document